Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 2.325666 2.471265 2.625568 2.802005 2.999089 3.213542 3.466024
2025-05-11 2.098761 2.295450 2.514461 2.778927 3.093137 3.459160 3.924962
2025-05-18 1.953419 2.177923 2.436418 2.760748 3.163845 3.658531 4.328851
2025-05-25 1.840277 2.081653 2.366756 2.735350 3.210408 3.819338 4.690929
2025-06-01 1.748296 2.000858 2.305454 2.709210 3.245996 3.960933 5.036906
2025-06-08 1.683268 1.946937 2.271042 2.710757 3.312870 4.145436 5.463881
2025-06-15 1.638432 1.914201 2.259406 2.738459 3.413972 4.384474 6.006668
2025-06-22 1.570912 1.848301 2.200032 2.696121 3.410816 4.467444 6.309104
2025-06-29 1.508565 1.785691 2.141002 2.649265 3.395496 4.527572 6.578832
2025-07-06 1.447013 1.721229 2.075993 2.589396 3.355142 4.542457 6.767581
2025-07-13 1.424948 1.707476 2.078002 2.623791 3.457932 4.796648 7.447252
2025-07-20 1.408288 1.699810 2.087342 2.668455 3.579076 5.094481 8.281201
2025-07-27 1.390203 1.689933 2.093715 2.710056 3.700696 5.412676 9.256829
2025-08-03 1.353276 1.652842 2.060016 2.689059 3.717899 5.543705 9.845122
2025-08-10 1.320111 1.619614 2.030188 2.671889 3.739457 5.684671 10.499730
2025-08-17 1.287074 1.585337 1.997295 2.647834 3.746791 5.798128 11.119153
2025-08-24 1.255872 1.552552 1.965181 2.623067 3.750556 5.904341 11.755789
2025-08-31 1.233992 1.532119 1.950207 2.624533 3.800583 6.112244 12.777113
2025-09-07 1.220198 1.522598 1.950776 2.650779 3.897252 6.433871 14.322707
2025-09-14 1.189321 1.487684 1.912132 2.610662 3.867413 6.470235 14.894489
2025-09-21 1.158799 1.452495 1.871971 2.566238 3.826433 6.476465 15.364203
2025-09-28 1.126405 1.413851 1.825503 2.509436 3.758373 6.412334 15.538070
2025-10-05 1.118439 1.410355 1.832171 2.542074 3.865191 6.779971 17.741388